We’ve heard this could be a possibility for quite some time: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s House district could be redrawn based on the 2020 census. And as Beth noted, New York is projected to lose one seat. This has not caught the fiery left-winger off guard. AOC has been known this could be a potential problem. It also highlights why Democrats threw a tantrum when
The Trump administration proposed the very noncontroversial change to the 2020 census by including a citizenship question. In AOC’s district, almost a quarter of its residents are noncitizens. As expected, the areas that will be heavily impacted are Democratic bastions. It strikes at the heart of their political power and roadmap to obtaining control. Coddle these groups of people together and use them to create more districts favorable to Democrats based on ethnic representatives. Democrats have had phenomenal success doing this, hence the reason why they’re lax on border security, endear themselves to illegal immigration, and bash federal authorities tasked with enforcing laws in this area, hence the targeting of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as the Gestapo in these circles.
New York is expected to lose a House seat after the 2020 Census, and state Democrats are looking to draw out @AOC’s district.https://t.co/DYXvzqvWXm
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) December 31, 2019
The City had a story about this last August, which pollster Frank Luntz rehashed on Twitter:
For Ocasio-Cortez, a full Census count is more than a matter of making sure her district gets all the funds and services it’s due. In a sense, her own political fortunes could hang in the balance.
A review by THE CITY, building on data and analysis by The Texas Tribune, suggests Ocasio-Cortez’ district could be particularly vulnerable to undercount because a little over a quarter of those living there are non-citizens.
That’s a higher percentage than any other congressional district in the state.
A Census undercount in Ocasio-Cortez’ district and elsewhere in the state could lead to the elimination of congressional districts — potentially setting off politically charged redistricting battles.
New York already is on track to lose up to two congressional seats during reapportionment due to population decline and slower rate of growth, according to a December report by Election Data Services.
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In February, The Intercept wrote that AOC’s top enemy in this redrawing fight isn’t conservative Republicans, but New York Democrats. Yet, the publication also noted that should AOC’s district go bye-bye, she might mount another insurgent campaign. This time against incumbent Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), which could make this Democratic heavyweight her guardian angel in many ways:
…Ocasio-Cortez’s most determined adversaries are not partisan Republicans, but Democrats who say that she has been a disruptive influence. The Hill recently reported that at least one member of Congress has been urging New York party leaders to recruit a Democratic primary challenger to Ocasio-Cortez. But the news led to a surge of donations to Ocasio-Cortez, suggesting that a more efficient means of ousting her might be simply to eliminate her district.
[…]
Ocasio-Cortez could just run, and probably win, in any nearby New York City district the party may try to draw for her. She noted that when it comes to future redistricting, she’s in a unique situation because her name recognition is so strong “that even when I won my primary in New York [District] 14, we won like a third ballot, a third-party primary in a different congressional district the same day.” And that was in November 2018, before an endless media cycle that has been all Ocasio-Cortez, all the time.
Moving her into a different district would pit her against another incumbent Democrat, and that Democrat has an incentive to avoid that race. ”Maybe some people wouldn’t want trouble for themselves,” she noted.
Another reason not to target Ocasio-Cortez would be Chuck Schumer. The Democratic Senate minority leader, and a major player in New York politics, is up for re-election in 2022. The commission redrawing the lines may be technically independent, but Schumer’s power is no secret. If Ocasio-Cortez were gerrymandered out of the House, she’d need something new to do — and primarying Schumer would be an obvious option on the table. That could make Schumer Ocasio-Cortez’s strongest advocate at the redistricting negotiating table.
But there is something appealing about an AOC-Schumer war. It would certainly be popcorn worthy. Let’s see what happens. Democratic blood sports are always top-notch entertainment, especially in deep blue states like New York.
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